Saturday, October 31, 2026
Build Your Bias
A step-by-step worksheet to form your own daily view from the past, the present and what is scheduled. PreBell gives you the context and the questions; the bias is yours.
Beta: free for everyone while we build it. What you enter is saved in this browser; it is sent (not stored) only when you analyse your notes or ask Ask PreBell a question.
Step 1
Past: what already happened
Start with yesterday's session and the week so far, from PreBell's briefings and recaps.
Tech slid on AI spending fears
Amazon and Intel results deepened concerns about heavy AI spending, and Intel had one of its worst days in years. Traders watch whether this spending eventually pays off. Read in the briefing
Binance hit by major hack
Binance suffered a $6.3 billion hack, and both Bitcoin and Ether fell over the day. Traders watch whether the damage spreads across the crypto market. Read in the briefing
Hot European inflation, ECB ready to hike
Italian inflation came in well above forecasts, driven mainly by energy, after the European Central Bank signaled it is prepared to raise interest rates. Read in the briefing
Last session
Tech selloff deepens as Intel and Reddit post steep one-day drops; Binance hack weighs on crypto
- Technology stocks were hit hard Friday, with MarketWatch describing the selloff as shifting into overdrive.
- Intel had its worst day since the 1970s, according to CNBC, and AMD slid after Intel's earnings, MarketWatch reported.
- Reddit logged its biggest one-day drop ever after citing weaker search referral traffic.
- Binance reported a roughly $6.3 billion hack, described by CNBC as the largest crypto theft on record.
- Fed officials Lorie Logan and Alberto Musalem said rate hikes may be needed again, per CNBC and MarketWatch.
This week so far
Ask yourself · How to read this
- What were the main stories of the last session, and did markets react the way you expected?
- Is a theme building over several days (rates, AI spending, oil, a central bank)?
- Did anything happen after the close that the market hasn't fully digested yet?
The past tells you what the market is already focused on. A theme that keeps coming back is more likely to matter today than a one-off headline.
Step 2
Present: where things stand now
Overnight news, yields, the dollar, volatility and commodities. Live prices come from TradingView.
Yields at one-month low, dollar softer
The benchmark US Treasury yield fell to 4.98%, a one-month low, as investors sought safety. The dollar weakened alongside yields. Read in the briefing
Stocks, yields and gold all lower
This unusual mix was tied to AI spending fears and to forced selling of gold as stock losses mounted. Read in the briefing
Bank of Japan holds, keeps hike path
The Bank of Japan left its rate unchanged as expected, and Governor Ueda said it will stick to its plan of gradual rate increases. Read in the briefing
Interest rates
Central bank rates and government bond yields (what governments pay to borrow). Change vs. one week earlier.
United States
Fed funds target: 3.75–4.00%
| 3-month | 4.18% | −7 bp |
| 2-year | 4.67% | −14 bp |
| 10-year | 5.05% | −8 bp |
| 30-year | 5.37% | −5 bp |
Yield curve (10-year minus 2-year): +0.38
Normal: long-term rates are above short-term rates, as usual when markets expect steady growth.
Canada
Bank of Canada rate: 2.50%
| 2-year | 3.36% | +14 bp |
| 10-year | 3.84% | +6 bp |
Yield curve (10-year minus 2-year): +0.48
Normal: long-term rates are above short-term rates, as usual when markets expect steady growth.
Source: FRED (U.S. Treasury / Federal Reserve), Bank of Canada
Live markets
Live prices by TradingView, shown on PreBell for reference. PreBell does not provide or redistribute futures data.
Sector performance (S&P 500)
Ask yourself · How to read this
- Are yields rising or falling, and is the 2-year moving more than the 10-year?
- Is the dollar stronger or weaker, and does that fit what yields are doing?
- Is the VIX calm or rising? Does the mood look risk-on or risk-off?
- Are oil and gold telling a different story than stocks?
Look for agreement or disagreement. When yields, the dollar, the VIX and sectors all point the same way, the picture is clearer. When they disagree, that is worth noting too.
Step 3
Future: what is scheduled
Today's releases, central bank events and catalysts on PreBell's calendar and Macro Watch.
US midterm elections ahead
The vote decides control of Congress, which shapes taxes, spending and trade policy. Markets often react to the result and to any delay in knowing it. See the calendar
US and Canadian jobs reports
Recent US hiring was weak and unemployment edged up. Canada's report comes the same morning, shortly after the Bank of Canada raised its rate. See the calendar
US inflation data under new Fed chair
With Kevin Warsh now leading the Fed (the US central bank), markets watch inflation figures for clues on how firmly it will act on rates. See the calendar
Scheduled today · Saturday, October 31, 2026
Nothing scheduled on PreBell's calendar.
Next session · Monday, November 2, 2026
Nothing scheduled on PreBell's calendar.
Forecasts and actuals, live
Economic calendar by TradingView, with forecasts and actual values as they are released.
Recent central bank remarks
- Tiff Macklem, Governor of the Bank of Canada (with Carolyn Rogers, Senior Deputy Governor) The Bank of Canada raised its key interest rate by 25 basis points to 2.5% because inflation has been higher than expected and is projected to stay around 3% through much of 2027 before returning close to 2% by the middle of 2028. The rate hike shows the Bank is leaning toward higher rates to bring inflation down, even as it says the growth outlook has improved but uncertainty remains elevated.
- Tiff Macklem, Governor of the Bank of Canada The Bank of Canada raised its key interest rate by 25 basis points to 2.5%, its first increase since July 2023, because higher oil prices tied to the war in the Middle East are pushing inflation up and the economy has proven more resilient than expected. Macklem said decisions will be made one meeting at a time and there could be a need to raise rates further, though the Bank will proceed carefully given high uncertainty.
- Frank Elderson, Member of the Executive Board of the ECB and Vice-Chair of the ECB Supervisory Board Elderson argues that nature is core economic infrastructure: 72% of euro area companies depend on at least one ecosystem service, and he says damage from droughts, floods and pollution is already raising costs and could affect growth and inflation. He notes that food price jumps after heatwaves and droughts are an upside risk to inflation that the ECB now considers in its policy assessments, but he gives no signal about where interest rates should go.
Catalysts on Macro Watch
- US midterm elections decide control of Congress Control of Congress shapes taxes, spending, regulation and trade policy, and the briefing notes investors are positioning for possible Democratic gains. Markets often react to the result and to any delay in knowing it.
- US and Canadian jobs reports US payrolls rose only 29K last month, down from 133K, and unemployment edged up to 4.2% from 4.1%, which raised questions about how fast hiring is cooling. Canada's Labour Force Survey comes out the same morning, days after the Bank of Canada raised its rate to 2.5%.
- US CPI inflation under a new Fed Chair Headline CPI rose 0.6% last month and 4.0% from a year earlier, up from 3.7%, while core CPI held at 0.3%. With Kevin Warsh now leading the Fed and the policy rate at 3.75% to 4.0%, markets are focused on how hawkish the Fed will be.
- US producer prices after a big jump Producer prices rose 1.3% last month, up from 0.5%, a sign that cost pressures were building at the business level. PPI can hint at future consumer inflation and feeds into the Fed's preferred PCE gauge, which ran at 3.6% year over year.
Earnings dates are not on PreBell yet. Check the company's investor relations site.
Ask yourself · How to read this
- Which release today could change rate expectations, and at what time?
- What would a surprise in either direction look like for the markets you trade?
- Is a central bank decision or speaker coming that could shift the tone?
- Should you avoid trading around a specific time?
Markets react to the gap between what comes out and what was expected, not to the number alone. Note the times; the minutes around a big release are often the most volatile.
Step 4
Your chart: structure and liquidity
Answer with the buttons from your own charts. PreBell does not read charts or give levels: these are your calls.
Ask yourself · How to read this
- Do the higher and lower time frames agree, or is one fighting the other?
- Which side looks more exposed: old highs or old lows?
Structure and liquidity tell you where the market has been and what it may be drawn to. Write a short thought under any answer you are unsure about.
Analyse my thinking
When you have read the steps and answered the buttons (and any thoughts you added), PreBell reads all of it together, checks your facts against today’s data and shows you what your own reasoning points to. It is your bias, from your words: PreBell gives no view of its own.
This reflects only what you wrote, checked against PreBell’s data. It is not advice, not a forecast and not PreBell’s view of the market.
Step 5
Your bias
Your own call for the session. Pick it with the buttons, then add a sentence if you want.
Ask yourself · How to read this
- Do your answers in steps 1 to 4 mostly point the same way?
- What would make you drop this bias today?
A bias is a working hypothesis you are responsible for, not a prediction. Review it after the close: what did you get right, what did you miss?
PreBell provides general information and education only. The worksheet helps you organize your own thinking; it is not advice and PreBell does not tell anyone what to trade.