Macro Watch
What’s coming up and the big stories behind the markets, updated every trading morning.
Next week's US midterm elections and the US and Canadian jobs reports lead the calendar, followed by US inflation and retail sales data. Worries about big tech's AI spending and energy-supply risk around the Strait of Hormuz remain in the background.
Coming up
Tue, Nov 3 · All day ·
US midterm elections decide control of Congress
Control of Congress shapes taxes, spending, regulation and trade policy, and the briefing notes investors are positioning for possible Democratic gains. Markets often react to the result and to any delay in knowing it.
What traders watch: Traders will watch which party wins the House and Senate, and how quickly the results become clear.
ESNQUSDBONDS
Tue, Nov 3 · 10:00 a.m. ET ·
US job openings (JOLTS)
Job openings fell to 7.08M from 7.33M, adding to signs that labor demand is easing. This report arrives on election day, ahead of the jobs report.
What traders watch: Traders will look at whether openings keep declining and what that suggests for wage pressure.
USDBONDS
Fri, Nov 6 · 8:30 a.m. ET ·
US and Canadian jobs reports
US payrolls rose only 29K last month, down from 133K, and unemployment edged up to 4.2% from 4.1%, which raised questions about how fast hiring is cooling. Canada's Labour Force Survey comes out the same morning, days after the Bank of Canada raised its rate to 2.5%.
What traders watch: Traders will look at whether US hiring rebounds or weakens further, plus wage growth and Canada's unemployment rate.
USDCADBONDSESNQGOLD
Tue, Nov 10 · 8:30 a.m. ET ·
US CPI inflation under a new Fed Chair
Headline CPI rose 0.6% last month and 4.0% from a year earlier, up from 3.7%, while core CPI held at 0.3%. With Kevin Warsh now leading the Fed and the policy rate at 3.75% to 4.0%, markets are focused on how hawkish the Fed will be.
What traders watch: Traders will compare headline and core CPI with forecasts, especially whether energy keeps lifting the headline figure.
BONDSNQESUSDGOLD
Fri, Nov 13 · 8:30 a.m. ET ·
US producer prices after a big jump
Producer prices rose 1.3% last month, up from 0.5%, a sign that cost pressures were building at the business level. PPI can hint at future consumer inflation and feeds into the Fed's preferred PCE gauge, which ran at 3.6% year over year.
What traders watch: Traders will look at whether business-level price increases slow or stay elevated.
BONDSUSDES
Tue, Nov 17 · 8:30 a.m. ET ·
US retail sales and consumer strength
Retail sales rose 0.8% last month after 1.3% the month before, pointing to a consumer that is still spending. Strong spending can support growth but also keep rates higher for longer.
What traders watch: Traders will watch whether spending holds up as hiring slows and inflation runs hot.
ESNQUSDBONDS
Ongoing stories
AI spending worries weigh on big tech
Concerns about heavy AI spending, deepened by Amazon and Intel results, pushed tech stocks lower and sent investors toward Treasuries, with the 10-year yield falling to 4.98% from 5.05%. How much big tech spends on AI, and whether it pays off, is a key question for Nasdaq earnings.
What traders watch: Traders will follow company spending plans, guidance and how tech stocks react to further earnings news.
NQESBONDS
Strait of Hormuz and energy-supply risk
Iran says four tankers struck mines in the Strait of Hormuz and disputes US claims that shipping lanes were cleared. The Bank of Canada linked its hike partly to higher oil prices tied to the war in the Middle East, and Italy's 5.4% inflation was driven mainly by energy.
What traders watch: Traders will watch shipping reports from the region and any sign of disruption to oil flows.
OILGOLDCADBONDS
Interest rates
Central bank rates and government bond yields (what governments pay to borrow). Change vs. one week earlier.
United States
Fed funds target: 3.75–4.00%
| 3-month | 4.18% | −7 bp |
| 2-year | 4.67% | −14 bp |
| 10-year | 5.05% | −8 bp |
| 30-year | 5.37% | −5 bp |
Yield curve (10-year minus 2-year): +0.38
Normal: long-term rates are above short-term rates, as usual when markets expect steady growth.
Canada
Bank of Canada rate: 2.50%
| 2-year | 3.36% | +14 bp |
| 10-year | 3.84% | +6 bp |
Yield curve (10-year minus 2-year): +0.48
Normal: long-term rates are above short-term rates, as usual when markets expect steady growth.
Source: FRED (U.S. Treasury / Federal Reserve), Bank of Canada
Central bank speeches
What central bankers said recently, in plain words, and which way they lean.
Bank of Canada · Wed, Oct 28 · Leans higher rates (hawkish)
Tiff Macklem, Governor of the Bank of Canada (with Carolyn Rogers, Senior Deputy Governor)
The Bank of Canada raised its key interest rate by 25 basis points to 2.5% because inflation has been higher than expected and is projected to stay around 3% through much of 2027 before returning close to 2% by the middle of 2028. The rate hike shows the Bank is leaning toward higher rates to bring inflation down, even as it says the growth outlook has improved but uncertainty remains elevated.
Bank of Canada · Wed, Oct 28 · Leans higher rates (hawkish)
Tiff Macklem, Governor of the Bank of Canada
The Bank of Canada raised its key interest rate by 25 basis points to 2.5%, its first increase since July 2023, because higher oil prices tied to the war in the Middle East are pushing inflation up and the economy has proven more resilient than expected. Macklem said decisions will be made one meeting at a time and there could be a need to raise rates further, though the Bank will proceed carefully given high uncertainty.
ECB · Mon, Oct 26 · No clear lean
Frank Elderson, Member of the Executive Board of the ECB and Vice-Chair of the ECB Supervisory Board
Elderson argues that nature is core economic infrastructure: 72% of euro area companies depend on at least one ecosystem service, and he says damage from droughts, floods and pollution is already raising costs and could affect growth and inflation. He notes that food price jumps after heatwaves and droughts are an upside risk to inflation that the ECB now considers in its policy assessments, but he gives no signal about where interest rates should go.
ECB · Wed, Oct 21 · No clear lean
Philip R. Lane, Member of the Executive Board of the ECB
Lane explained how the ECB's international liquidity lines, including its enhanced repo facility for foreign central banks (EUREP, with up to €50 billion per central bank) and currency swap lines, act as a safety net that keeps euro funding markets calm and helps ECB policy work smoothly in a more volatile world. He did not signal any direction for interest rates, focusing instead on how these tools strengthen the euro's global role and make the ECB's rate decisions more effective.