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Monday, November 2, 2026 · Morning briefing

Oil slips below $100 on US-Iran diplomacy reports as midterm elections arrive tomorrow

Published Nov 2, 7:07 AM ET

What matters today

  1. US midterm elections are tomorrow, and recent polls suggest Republicans face pressure in the fight for Congress.
  2. US crude fell below $100 a barrel on reports that Washington and Tehran are both pursuing diplomacy.
  3. The rotation away from AI and hyperscaler stocks (the largest cloud computing companies) continues, with Citi dropping its bet and Deutsche Bank calling for a rebound.
  4. The US 10-year Treasury yield ended Friday at 4.94%, down from 4.98%.
  5. Binance reported $3.64 billion in net outflows after reopening withdrawals following a $6.3 billion hack.

Overnight

US clocks fell back on Sunday, so Eastern Time is now GMT-5, though exchange hours themselves are unchanged. In Asia, China's private factory PMI (a survey of purchasing managers where readings above 50 signal growth) came in at 52.0 and beat forecasts, after Saturday's official gauges both slipped below 50, while Japan's factory PMI eased to 53.3, a seven-month low. In Europe, the final eurozone manufacturing PMI was 52.7, but German retail sales fell 2.0% in September against an expected 0.4% gain. Bitcoin traded near $77,806, down 0.14% over 24 hours, while ether rose 0.73% to about $2,284.

Top headlines

  • US crude dropped under $100 per barrel as reports emerged of diplomatic efforts between the US and Iran.CNBC Top News ↗
  • With voting set for tomorrow, polls point to several areas where Republicans could lose ground in Congress.ForexLive ↗
  • Citi abandoned its hyperscaler call after big tech and growth names lagged during a sharp market rotation.MarketWatch ↗
  • Binance saw $3.64 billion leave the exchange once withdrawals restarted after a $6.3 billion hack.CNBC Top News ↗
  • Trump said the US and Canada have the 'concept' of a trade deal, though no details have been released.ForexLive ↗
  • China's private manufacturing PMI reached 52.0, topping forecasts, with output growing at its fastest pace since April.ForexLive ↗
  • German retail sales fell 2.0% in September, missing expectations for a 0.4% rise and adding to ECB concerns.ForexLive ↗
  • Final eurozone manufacturing PMI was 52.7 for October, above the preliminary reading, while price pressures picked up.ForexLive ↗

Written with AI from the listed sources and checked automatically. Every number links to its source.